The rematch between Austin Trout and Luis Palomino headlines BKFC 85 on December 5, 2025 at the Hard Rock Hotel in Hollywood, Florida. This lightweight title tournament semifinal has serious betting implications, and I’m breaking down everything you need to know to make money on this card.

The Backstory: Why This Rematch Matters

When these two first met at BKFC 57 in February 2024, Trout dismantled the previously undefeated Palomino to capture the welterweight title by unanimous decision with scores of 49-46 across the board. That fight saw Trout land 99 of 155 total punches while Palomino only threw 94 strikes total. The boxing skill gap was massive.

Now they’re running it back, but with different stakes. This lightweight bout serves as a semifinal in the four-man tournament to crown a new BKFC lightweight champion after Franco Tenaglia was stripped of the belt. Palomino has moved back down to his natural weight class at 155 pounds, while Trout vacated his welterweight belt to chase two-division status.

Breaking Down Austin Trout

Trout came into bare knuckle boxing with serious credentials. The former WBA light middleweight champion fought the best in traditional boxing, including Canelo Alvarez, both Charlo brothers, and Erislandy Lara. Trout was the U.S. National Amateur Welterweight Champion in 2004 and finished his amateur career with a 163-42-1 record.

Since joining BKFC, Trout’s technical boxing has translated perfectly to bare knuckle. At BKFC 57, he connected on 64 percent of his total strikes and was 35 of 37 to the body. Those body shots kept Palomino from applying pressure and walking through punches.

His approach in the first fight was textbook. Trout used movement, a stiff jab, and precise counters to frustrate Palomino. He showed that pure boxing skill still works in bare knuckle when applied correctly. The blueprint is already there.

Breaking Down Luis Palomino

Palomino built his legacy as a BKFC pioneer. He was the first fighter in promotion history to hold titles in two weight classes, capturing both the lightweight and welterweight belts. Before losing to Trout, Palomino went undefeated in his first nine BKFC fights and was regarded as the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the sport.

The former MMA fighter brings aggression, power, and durability. Palomino has had his last five fights inside the Hollywood, Florida venue, so the home cage advantage is real. After the first Trout loss, Palomino moved back to lightweight and beat Howard Davis by decision in March 2025 to stay sharp.

Here’s the problem. Palomino’s style relies on pressure, clinch work, and overwhelming opponents with volume. That doesn’t work against someone who can move, counter, and pick you apart from range. We already saw this movie.

The Weight Class Factor

This is where things get interesting. The first fight happened at welterweight (165 pounds). Now they’re at lightweight (155 pounds). Does dropping 10 pounds help either fighter?

For Palomino, moving back down to his natural weight class should help. He won’t be as drained, and he might have more pop in his punches. Palomino held the lightweight title for years and defended it multiple times against top competition. He’s comfortable here.

For Trout, the weight cut could be tougher. He’s naturally bigger and fought most of his boxing career at 154 pounds. Cutting to 155 at age 39 isn’t easy. However, Trout has shown discipline throughout his career and likely prepared properly for this.

Expert Analysis and Predictions

The betting community isn’t buying Palomino’s chances. Former BKB heavyweight champion Ike Villanueva, who trains with Trout at Main Street Boxing, predicted Trout finishes Palomino within two rounds. Villanueva noted that Palomino “said every excuse in the book why he lost” the first time and that “now Austin’s just gonna pick you apart”.

The technical breakdown supports this. Trout’s jab, footwork, and ring IQ are levels above. Trout himself said “I’m the most elite fighter that he’s stepped into the ring with” when discussing the rematch. That’s not trash talk. That’s reality.

Palomino needs to make drastic adjustments. He needs to cut off the ring better, work behind a jab of his own, and not just bull rush forward. But that’s not his style. You can’t teach an old dog new tricks in 10 months.

Current Betting Odds and Value

As of this writing, Trout is the clear favorite. Most books have him around -200 to -250 range, with Palomino as the underdog at +150 to +180. Those odds reflect the reality that Trout already dominated once and nothing suggests a different outcome.

The smart money is on Trout by decision again. He’s not a finisher in bare knuckle. He picks you apart over five rounds and wins on points. That’s what he did to Palomino, Rico Franco, and Carlos Trinidad-Snake.

For bettors looking for value, the under on total rounds could be interesting if Palomino comes out recklessly trying to force an early finish. But based on the first fight, expect another five-round clinic.

How to Bet This Fight

The Safe Play: Trout by decision at whatever odds you can get. This is the highest probability outcome based on the first fight and style matchup.

The Value Play: If Palomino’s odds creep above +200, a small underdog bet makes sense. Upsets happen in bare knuckle, and Palomino has home advantage and a full camp to make adjustments.

The Prop Play: Look for “fight goes the distance” if the odds are decent. Trout isn’t finishing Palomino, and Palomino likely can’t catch him clean enough for a stoppage.

Avoid: Palomino by KO/TKO. This isn’t happening unless Trout gets injured or something fluky occurs.

Key Betting Strategies for BKFC 85

When betting this event, remember these bare knuckle fundamentals:

Line shop across multiple books. BKFC odds can vary significantly from website to website, so having accounts at BetOnline, Bovada, and MyBookie lets you grab the best price.

Consider live betting opportunities. With live betting, you can follow the fight and react to developments like a cut or knockdown. If Trout starts slow or Palomino lands early, in-fight odds could shift dramatically.

Factor in home venue history. Palomino has thrived at the Hard Rock Hotel. Crowd energy matters in bare knuckle, and the Florida fans will be loud for their guy.

Don’t overthink it. Sometimes the obvious answer is the right answer. Trout already proved he’s the better fighter. Bet accordingly.

The Rest of the BKFC 85 Card

While Trout vs Palomino 2 headlines the event, BKFC 85 should feature a stacked undercard. The promotion typically stacks Florida cards since it’s one of their strongest markets. Watch for rising prospects and veterans looking to stay relevant in the lightweight and welterweight divisions.

As more fights get announced, look for opportunities where betting markets haven’t adjusted to fighter styles. BKFC oddsmakers are getting sharper, but value still exists for informed bettors who understand bare knuckle dynamics.

Final Prediction

Trout wins by unanimous decision, probably 49-46 or 48-47 on the cards. He’ll use the same game plan as the first fight because it worked perfectly. Jab, move, counter, work the body, stay off the ropes. Palomino will press forward and land some shots, but not enough to win rounds.

The only way Palomino wins is if Trout severely struggles with the weight cut or gets hurt early. Neither seems likely given Trout’s professionalism and experience.

For those looking to make money on BKFC 85, the path is clear. Back Trout, take him by decision if the odds are favorable, and don’t get cute chasing big underdog payouts on Palomino.

Where to Bet BKFC 85

BetOnline, BetUS, Bovada, and SportsBetting.ag all offer comprehensive BKFC betting markets with competitive odds and various prop bets for major cards. New bettors can take advantage of sign-up bonuses, with BetOnline offering a $250 free bet bonus with no rollover requirement.

Make sure you’re betting with licensed, regulated sportsbooks in jurisdictions where BKFC wagering is legal. Check your state’s gambling laws before placing any bets.

BKFC 85 streams live on DAZN starting at 7pm ET on December 5th from the Hard Rock Hotel in Hollywood, Florida. Don’t miss this lightweight title tournament semifinal as Trout looks to advance one step closer to becoming a two-division champion.

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