If you are into bare knuckle betting, you know the heavyweights are where the chaos lives. The co-main event at BKB 49 features a massive domestic clash between Welshmen Troy Palmer and Dorian Darch.

This fight is a weird one on paper. You have the giant, athletic Troy Palmer against the seasoned, wild brawler in Dorian Darch. We’ve been looking at the lines and the tape, and honestly, this one might not leave the first round.

Tale of the Tape

The Case for Troy Palmer

Troy Palmer is a beast physically. At 6’5″ and 250 lbs, he is a proper heavyweight who moves like a middleweight. He has good hand speed and impressive cardio for a man his size.

What I like about Palmer is his body work. Most heavyweights just headhunt, but Palmer digs that right hook to the near side of the body beautifully. If he can keep the pace high, he can drown Darch in the later rounds – you really don’t want to be in deep waters with him.

But there is a huge question mark: his chin. He was put down by a much smaller Volodymyr Skurtu in his last loss. It was strange – Skurtu didn’t seem to land anything flush, but Palmer went down easy. In bare knuckle boxing, if your chin is suspect, you are in trouble.

The Case for Dorian Darch

Dorian Darch is 41, giving up size and reach, but he has been in there with the elite. He has shared the ring with Anthony Joshua, Daniel Dubois, and Dave Allen in gloved boxing. He has a pedigree, but in bare knuckle, he reverts to a brawler.

Darch comes out swinging wild. He can be far too open, taking crazy swings (generally keeps his chin tucked). But he has that equalizer: the overhand right. That’s going to be his key to victory – overhand to the head, overhand to the body – and it carries serious power.

His record is deceptive. Darch has lost at least two bare knuckle fights due to cuts when he was arguably winning. He has a ton of scar tissue, so there is always a risk of the fight getting stopped if he starts bleeding.

The Prediction

I don’t think Palmer has the skillset to properly counter Darch’s wild entries. Palmer is faster, bigger, and probably more skilled, but I don’t trust his chin.

Darch is going to come out like a train. Palmer will likely control the distance early, but Darch only needs one of those wild overhands to land. I think they will both be gassed by Round 2, and Darch will almost certainly be bloody, but Palmer’s fragility is the deciding factor here.

That glass chin we saw in the Skurtu fight was scary. Palmer lacks the one-shot power to put Darch out cold instantly, which gives Darch the time he needs to land that bomb.

Official Pick: Palmer looks good early, but the chin fails him. Dorian Darch wins by Overhand Right KO.

Check the latest odds at BKB World and follow our live coverage at AltBoxing.com.